Indicators · Money and rates · T10YIE
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
What market participants expect inflation to be over the next ten years, on average.
Percent
2.32
−0.03 vs
History
10-year breakeven inflation Percent
2.3333 Week of 12 Oct 2026
Effective federal funds rate Percent
3.8800 Week of 12 Oct 2026
10Y shown as weekly averages of daily observations. Averages are computed in the database from the latest vintage of each observation and shown to 4 decimal places. Full daily history is in the CSV. Compared series are drawn in separate panels on the same time axis, each with its own scale and units.
How to read it
- What it measures
- A measure of expected inflation derived from the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield.
- What it does not show
- It is an imperfect measure of expected inflation: besides expected inflation, the spread also contains an inflation risk premium and a liquidity premium on inflation-protected securities, so it is not a pure reading of what markets expect.
- Revisions
- A daily series calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from US Treasury data. Capisaga keeps every stored version, so a later correction is a new version, not an overwrite.
Freshness
- Update frequency
- Daily
- Last observation
- Last checked
- Last retrieved
“Last checked” is when the pipeline last fetched this series from the source, whether or not anything changed. “Last retrieved” is when it last stored a new or revised value.
Source
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T10YIE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on 16 Oct 2026.
Copyright status (per FRED): copyrighted: citation required.