Capisaga

Indicators · Money and rates · T10YIE

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

What market participants expect inflation to be over the next ten years, on average.

Percent

2.32

−0.03 vs

History

10-year breakeven inflation Percent

2.32 15 Oct 2026

10-year breakeven inflation, Percent10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, Percent. 1Y shown as daily observations. From 16 Oct 2025 (2.28) to 15 Oct 2026 (2.32). Low 2.18 (24 Jun 2026); high 2.5 (4 May 2026). 250 points.

10-year real yield Percent

2.84 14 Oct 2026

10-year real yield, PercentMarket Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed, Percent. 1Y shown as daily observations. From 16 Oct 2025 (1.71) to 14 Oct 2026 (2.84). Low 1.68 (22 Oct 2025); high 2.95 (5 Oct 2026). 249 points.

Effective federal funds rate Percent

3.88 14 Oct 2026

Effective federal funds rate, PercentFederal Funds Effective Rate, Percent. 1Y shown as daily observations. From 16 Oct 2025 (4.11) to 14 Oct 2026 (3.88). Low 3.62 (19 May 2026); high 4.12 (27 Oct 2025). 364 points.

1Y shown as daily observations. Compared series are drawn in separate panels on the same time axis, each with its own scale and units.

How to read it

What it measures
A measure of expected inflation derived from the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield.
What it does not show
It is an imperfect measure of expected inflation: besides expected inflation, the spread also contains an inflation risk premium and a liquidity premium on inflation-protected securities, so it is not a pure reading of what markets expect.
Revisions
A daily series calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from US Treasury data. Capisaga keeps every stored version, so a later correction is a new version, not an overwrite.

Freshness

Update frequency
Daily
Last observation
Last checked
Last retrieved

“Last checked” is when the pipeline last fetched this series from the source, whether or not anything changed. “Last retrieved” is when it last stored a new or revised value.

Source

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T10YIE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on 16 Oct 2026.

Copyright status (per FRED): copyrighted: citation required.