Capisaga

Indicators · Money and rates · T10YIE

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

What market participants expect inflation to be over the next ten years, on average.

Percent

2.32

−0.03 vs

History

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, Max. Max shown as monthly averages of daily observations.
MonthAverageObservations
2.348010
2.351021
2.287121
2.246422
2.291421
2.445020
2.382322
2.336822
2.301119
2.306520
2.244122
2.266118
2.305022
2.371421
2.381921
2.383622
2.297020
2.313321
2.241021
2.334321
2.424219
2.400521
2.303321
2.321119
2.285922
2.107520
2.110022
2.274522
2.255319
2.334122
2.394122
2.311520
2.282520
2.266221
2.184520
2.304321
2.386221
2.342020
2.335223
2.296520
2.200521
2.213622
2.266520
2.302223
2.333719
2.237020
2.259521
2.371020
2.393520
2.382421
2.508323
2.362020
2.617621
2.688621
2.884020
2.846523
2.457919
2.449520
2.458222
2.616020
2.535020
2.344321
2.348622
2.327621
2.342722
2.468020
2.349522
2.275223
2.180019
2.081619
1.915922
1.712119
1.703821
1.656221
1.661421
1.456422
1.273222
1.115520
1.103321
0.986822
1.615819
1.721021
1.718121
1.640519
1.560922
1.587020
1.586422
1.752722
1.700020
1.826422
1.936721
1.912921
1.876819
1.793821
1.816319
2.004020
2.111422
2.123219
2.099123
2.114321
2.117621
2.141822
2.127621
2.090521
2.101619
2.043821
1.899520
1.857621
1.861921
1.834020
1.775723
1.772020
1.728622
1.836822
1.906319
1.996123
2.018919
2.011520
1.935721
1.822020
1.667020
1.514821
1.468323
1.465520
1.470022
1.594321
1.614821
1.551822
1.307520
1.420019
1.515022
1.570519
1.498621
1.522921
1.611421
1.820922
1.865922
1.865520
1.858222
1.761822
1.715319
1.607020
1.696822
1.880018
1.920022
2.073321
2.196221
2.262722
2.229021
2.191021
2.162421
2.167621
2.157419
2.226221
2.163321
2.170519
2.187322
2.145520
2.184522
2.122322
2.048520
2.283222
2.411422
2.542520
2.554719
2.523321
2.476520
2.426520
2.494821
2.436319
2.263923
2.128621
2.122921
2.144522
2.266721
2.314122
2.222020
2.074520
2.009521
2.012020
1.966020
1.897621
2.167823
2.379520
2.246822
2.390021
2.591520
2.450423
2.338419
2.333520
2.246822
2.097020
2.015020
1.738621
1.676822
1.770521
1.947322
2.113020
2.345922
2.219123
2.272119
2.358419
2.225522
2.127419
1.904321
1.760021
1.813321
1.739522
1.859522
1.576020
1.359521
1.110522
1.117919
0.605520
0.246422
0.638318
1.061822
1.836221
2.209521
2.438622
2.471021
2.420021
2.312722
2.419020
2.332520
2.275221
2.308520
2.380520
2.325522
2.264219
2.236523
2.367621
2.411921
2.372722
2.438121
2.387722
2.362119
2.322921
2.314020
2.303321
2.317621
2.399520
2.585723
2.580520
2.576822
2.664122
2.581619
2.526523
2.520019
2.410020
2.343821
2.471520
2.521020
2.500021
2.373523
2.301020
2.323622
2.491021
2.635221
2.710522
2.534219
2.498020
2.562322
2.518020
2.368020
2.326721
2.421822
2.473821
2.587621
2.625520
2.444821
2.361323
2.322119
2.263020
2.284122
2.336118
2.214122
2.088121
2.124821
1.865922
1.612421
1.661021
1.774821
1.862921
1.912619
1.754321

Max shown as monthly averages of daily observations. Averages are computed in the database from the latest vintage of each observation and shown to 4 decimal places. Full daily history is in the CSV.

How to read it

What it measures
A measure of expected inflation derived from the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield.
What it does not show
It is an imperfect measure of expected inflation: besides expected inflation, the spread also contains an inflation risk premium and a liquidity premium on inflation-protected securities, so it is not a pure reading of what markets expect.
Revisions
A daily series calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from US Treasury data. Capisaga keeps every stored version, so a later correction is a new version, not an overwrite.

Freshness

Update frequency
Daily
Last observation
Last checked
Last retrieved

“Last checked” is when the pipeline last fetched this series from the source, whether or not anything changed. “Last retrieved” is when it last stored a new or revised value.

Source

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T10YIE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on 16 Oct 2026.

Copyright status (per FRED): copyrighted: citation required.